Predicted scoreLikely
Temple
22.1
Toledo
31.5
Toledo win probability: 72%
Margin (Toledo − Temple): 9.3 (80% range -11 to 30)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Temple 48 – Toledo 49 (margin error 8.3, total error 43.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:42 PM | 12.8 | 54.0 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:39 PM | 12.7 | 53.9 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:07 PM | 12.7 | 54.0 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:40 AM | 12.7 | 53.9 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:26 PM | 12.7 | 53.7 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:39 PM | 12.3 | 53.9 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:18 PM | 11.9 | 54.9 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:07 PM | 9.3 | 53.6 | 72% |