2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Arizona @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreLean

Arizona

27.4

Kansas State

33.3

Kansas State win probability: 64%

Margin (Kansas State − Arizona): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 60.6 (80% range 35 to 87)

Actual: Arizona 7 – Kansas State 31 (margin error 18.1, total error 22.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.