2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Tulane @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreLikely
Tulane
17.5
Kansas State
30.7
Kansas State win probability: 81%
Margin (Kansas State − Tulane): 13.2 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Tulane 20 – Kansas State 31 (margin error 2.2, total error 2.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:34 PM | 8.5 | 50.5 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | 8.5 | 50.4 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:58 PM | 8.6 | 50.4 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:33 AM | 8.6 | 50.3 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:22 PM | 8.5 | 50.4 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:34 PM | 8.2 | 50.4 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:15 PM | 9.2 | 49.3 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:04 PM | 13.2 | 48.2 | 81% |