2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Wembley Stadium (neutral site)
Arizona State @ Kansas
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arizona State
28.7
Kansas
26.6
Kansas win probability: 45%
Margin (Kansas − Arizona State): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Arizona State 24 – Kansas 17 (margin error 4.9, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:34 PM | 0.1 | 56.3 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:37 PM | 0.3 | 56.6 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:59 PM | -0.0 | 56.5 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:35 AM | 0.4 | 56.4 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:25 PM | 0.1 | 56.6 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:35 PM | -1.2 | 56.8 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:14 PM | -1.2 | 56.8 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:05 PM | -2.1 | 55.2 | 45% |