Predicted scoreLikely
Georgia
33.2
Arkansas
21.4
Arkansas win probability: 22%
Margin (Arkansas − Georgia): -11.9 (80% range -32 to 8)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Georgia 45 – Arkansas 17 (margin error 16.1, total error 7.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:31 PM | -10.2 | 56.2 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | -10.0 | 56.3 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:03 PM | -10.1 | 56.3 | 26% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:32 AM | -10.2 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:22 PM | -10.3 | 56.2 | 26% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:33 PM | -11.2 | 56.2 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:11 PM | -10.6 | 55.5 | 25% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:02 PM | -11.9 | 54.6 | 22% |