2026 Week 3 · Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 PM · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Miami @ Wake Forest
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami
35.6
Wake Forest
20.9
Wake Forest win probability: 18%
Margin (Wake Forest − Miami): -14.7 (80% range -35 to 6)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Miami 33 – Wake Forest 20 (margin error 1.7, total error 3.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.61% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:43 PM | -12.1 | 50.6 | 22% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:35 PM | -12.0 | 50.4 | 22% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:55 PM | -12.0 | 50.6 | 22% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:30 AM | -12.1 | 50.6 | 22% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:20 PM | -12.2 | 50.5 | 22% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:28 PM | -12.5 | 51.1 | 21% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:08 PM | -13.8 | 54.2 | 19% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:59 PM | -14.7 | 56.5 | 18% |