2026 Week 3 · Sep 17, 2026, 11:30 PM · Acrisure Stadium
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreLikely
Syracuse
18.2
Pittsburgh
33.0
Pittsburgh win probability: 83%
Margin (Pittsburgh − Syracuse): 14.8 (80% range -5 to 35)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Syracuse 13 – Pittsburgh 27 (margin error 0.8, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:38 PM | 12.3 | 52.0 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:35 PM | 12.5 | 51.9 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:54 PM | 12.5 | 51.9 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:30 AM | 12.3 | 51.8 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:20 PM | 12.8 | 51.9 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:27 PM | 12.9 | 51.5 | 79% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:07 PM | 16.1 | 52.3 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:59 PM | 14.8 | 51.2 | 83% |