Predicted scoreConfident
Charlotte
10.7
Ole Miss
43.9
Ole Miss win probability: 98%
Margin (Ole Miss − Charlotte): 33.1 (80% range 13 to 55)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Charlotte 9 – Ole Miss 41 (margin error 1.1, total error 4.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.11% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.95% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.84% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:25 PM | 32.7 | 53.1 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:33 PM | 32.7 | 53.0 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:49 PM | 32.7 | 53.0 | 98% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:06 AM | 32.5 | 53.0 | 98% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:55 PM | 32.7 | 53.1 | 98% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:34 PM | 32.5 | 53.1 | 98% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:45 PM | 33.1 | 54.6 | 98% |