2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM · Reser Stadium
Texas Tech @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreConfident
Texas Tech
36.7
Oregon State
16.4
Oregon State win probability: 10%
Margin (Oregon State − Texas Tech): -20.3 (80% range -41 to 0)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Texas Tech 35 – Oregon State 24 (margin error 9.3, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 35 | 10 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:25 PM | -23.0 | 53.1 | 7% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:33 PM | -22.8 | 53.6 | 8% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:47 PM | -22.8 | 53.3 | 8% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:03 AM | -23.0 | 53.2 | 8% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:54 PM | -22.8 | 53.1 | 8% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:32 PM | -23.1 | 53.1 | 7% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:41 PM | -20.3 | 53.1 | 10% |