2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Ohio State @ Texas
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ohio State
27.7
Texas
23.7
Texas win probability: 40%
Margin (Texas − Ohio State): -4.0 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Ohio State 23 – Texas 24 (margin error 5.0, total error 4.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:27 PM | -8.5 | 51.2 | 29% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:32 PM | -8.3 | 51.4 | 30% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:46 PM | -8.9 | 51.3 | 29% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:02 AM | -8.5 | 51.4 | 29% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:53 PM | -8.3 | 51.4 | 30% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:31 PM | -8.0 | 51.1 | 31% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:42 PM | -4.0 | 51.4 | 40% |