2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM · JMA Wireless Dome
California @ Syracuse
Predicted scoreToss-up
California
26.1
Syracuse
28.6
Syracuse win probability: 56%
Margin (Syracuse − California): 2.6 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: California 21 – Syracuse 18 (margin error 5.6, total error 15.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:27 PM | 2.3 | 53.6 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:26 PM | 2.3 | 53.5 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:29 PM | 2.3 | 53.6 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:38 AM | 2.2 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:04 PM | 2.3 | 53.7 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:54 PM | 0.3 | 53.7 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:27 PM | 2.6 | 54.7 | 56% |