2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 4:00 PM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Wake Forest @ Purdue
Predicted scoreToss-up
Wake Forest
28.6
Purdue
26.9
Purdue win probability: 46%
Margin (Purdue − Wake Forest): -1.7 (80% range -22 to 19)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Wake Forest 38 – Purdue 36 (margin error 0.3, total error 18.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:26 PM | -1.3 | 53.8 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:24 PM | -1.2 | 53.9 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:21 PM | -1.2 | 53.9 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:46 AM | -1.3 | 53.7 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:01 PM | -1.0 | 53.8 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:43 PM | -0.9 | 53.8 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:51 PM | -1.7 | 55.5 | 46% |