Predicted scoreLean
Missouri
29.4
Kansas
23.4
Kansas win probability: 35%
Margin (Kansas − Missouri): -6.0 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Missouri 38 – Kansas 21 (margin error 11.0, total error 6.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:22 PM | -3.6 | 52.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:22 PM | -3.6 | 52.3 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:20 PM | -3.4 | 52.4 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:47 AM | -3.5 | 52.3 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:57 PM | -3.4 | 52.8 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:39 PM | -3.6 | 52.4 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:29 PM | -6.0 | 52.8 | 35% |