2026 Week 1 · Sep 6, 2026, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium
UCLA @ California
Predicted scoreToss-up
UCLA
25.6
California
26.5
California win probability: 52%
Margin (California − UCLA): 0.9 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:06 PM | 0.9 | 52.0 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:21 PM | 0.8 | 52.1 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:16 PM | 0.9 | 52.1 | 52% |