2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:30 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreConfident
UL Monroe
14.7
Mississippi State
38.1
Mississippi State win probability: 93%
Margin (Mississippi State − UL Monroe): 23.4 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 31 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:11 PM | 23.5 | 52.6 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:19 PM | 23.4 | 52.7 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:11 PM | 23.4 | 52.8 | 93% |