2025 Postseason · Jan 20, 2026, 12:30 AM · Hard Rock Stadium (neutral site)

Miami @ Indiana

Predicted scoreToss-up

Miami

31.4

Indiana

32.5

Indiana win probability: 53%

Margin (Indiana − Miami): 1.1 (80% range -21 to 22)

Total: 63.9 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: Miami 21 – Indiana 27 (margin error 4.9, total error 15.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.