2025 Postseason · Jan 9, 2026, 12:30 AM · State Farm Stadium (neutral site)

Miami @ Ole Miss

Predicted scoreLean

Miami

28.5

Ole Miss

34.7

Ole Miss win probability: 65%

Margin (Ole Miss − Miami): 6.2 (80% range -15 to 28)

Total: 63.2 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: Miami 31 – Ole Miss 27 (margin error 10.2, total error 5.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.