2025 Postseason · Jan 2, 2026, 9:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (neutral site)

Navy @ Cincinnati

Predicted scoreToss-up

Navy

25.0

Cincinnati

24.1

Cincinnati win probability: 48%

Margin (Cincinnati − Navy): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 49.1 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Navy 35 – Cincinnati 13 (margin error 21.1, total error 1.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.