2025 Postseason · Jan 1, 2026, 12:30 AM · AT&T Stadium (neutral site)

Miami @ Ohio State

Predicted scoreLikely

Miami

23.6

Ohio State

37.3

Ohio State win probability: 80%

Margin (Ohio State − Miami): 13.7 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 61.0 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Miami 24 – Ohio State 14 (margin error 23.7, total error 23.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.