2025 Postseason · Jan 1, 2026, 12:30 AM · AT&T Stadium (neutral site)
Miami @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami
23.6
Ohio State
37.3
Ohio State win probability: 80%
Margin (Ohio State − Miami): 13.7 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 61.0 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Miami 24 – Ohio State 14 (margin error 23.7, total error 23.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.