2025 Postseason · Dec 27, 2025, 9:30 PM · Arizona Stadium (neutral site)

Miami (OH) @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLean

Miami (OH)

26.9

Fresno State

22.7

Fresno State win probability: 40%

Margin (Fresno State − Miami (OH)): -4.2 (80% range -24 to 15)

Total: 49.6 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Miami (OH) 3 – Fresno State 18 (margin error 19.2, total error 28.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.