2025 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2025, 12:30 AM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Northwestern @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLean

Northwestern

23.8

Illinois

29.2

Illinois win probability: 63%

Margin (Illinois − Northwestern): 5.4 (80% range -14 to 25)

Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Northwestern 13 – Illinois 20 (margin error 1.6, total error 19.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.