2025 Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025, 12:30 AM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Navy @ Memphis

Predicted scoreToss-up

Navy

26.7

Memphis

29.6

Memphis win probability: 57%

Margin (Memphis − Navy): 2.9 (80% range -17 to 24)

Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Navy 28 – Memphis 17 (margin error 13.9, total error 11.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.