2025 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2025, 3:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

Utah State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Utah State

25.5

Fresno State

26.2

Fresno State win probability: 52%

Margin (Fresno State − Utah State): 0.7 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 51.7 (80% range 28 to 76)

Actual: Utah State 28 – Fresno State 17 (margin error 11.7, total error 6.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.