2025 Week 13 · Nov 21, 2025, 12:30 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Louisiana @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Louisiana

27.3

Arkansas State

26.2

Arkansas State win probability: 47%

Margin (Arkansas State − Louisiana): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Louisiana 34 – Arkansas State 30 (margin error 2.9, total error 10.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.