2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Malone Stadium
South Alabama @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
South Alabama
30.5
UL Monroe
22.3
UL Monroe win probability: 30%
Margin (UL Monroe − South Alabama): -8.2 (80% range -28 to 12)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: South Alabama 26 – UL Monroe 14 (margin error 3.8, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.