2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Maryland @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Maryland

21.2

Illinois

31.1

Illinois win probability: 73%

Margin (Illinois − Maryland): 9.8 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Maryland 6 – Illinois 24 (margin error 8.2, total error 22.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.