2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 5:00 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

South Florida @ Navy

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Florida

27.1

Navy

25.1

Navy win probability: 45%

Margin (Navy − South Florida): -1.9 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: South Florida 38 – Navy 41 (margin error 4.9, total error 26.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.