2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Georgia Southern

31.0

Arkansas State

30.1

Arkansas State win probability: 48%

Margin (Arkansas State − Georgia Southern): -0.8 (80% range -22 to 21)

Total: 61.1 (80% range 36 to 87)

Actual: Georgia Southern 24 – Arkansas State 34 (margin error 10.8, total error 3.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.