Predicted scoreLean
Auburn
26.7
Arkansas
30.9
Arkansas win probability: 60%
Margin (Arkansas − Auburn): 4.2 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Auburn 33 – Arkansas 24 (margin error 13.2, total error 0.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.