2024 Week 2 · Sep 8, 2024, 2:30 AM · Mountain America Stadium

Mississippi State @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreLean

Mississippi State

23.4

Arizona State

28.2

Arizona State win probability: 62%

Margin (Arizona State − Mississippi State): 4.7 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Mississippi State 23 – Arizona State 30 (margin error 2.3, total error 1.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.