2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 4:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

South Florida @ Memphis

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Florida

28.7

Memphis

27.6

Memphis win probability: 47%

Margin (Memphis − South Florida): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: South Florida 31 – Memphis 34 (margin error 4.1, total error 8.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.