2025 Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025, 11:30 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium

Arkansas State @ South Alabama

Predicted scoreLikely

Arkansas State

24.2

South Alabama

36.6

South Alabama win probability: 77%

Margin (South Alabama − Arkansas State): 12.4 (80% range -9 to 34)

Total: 60.8 (80% range 37 to 86)

Actual: Arkansas State 15 – South Alabama 14 (margin error 13.4, total error 31.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.