Predicted scoreLean
Texas
26.2
Florida
19.4
Florida win probability: 33%
Margin (Florida − Texas): -6.9 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 45.6 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Texas 21 – Florida 29 (margin error 14.9, total error 4.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.