2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 6:30 PM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Western Michigan @ Massachusetts

Predicted scoreLikely

Western Michigan

29.4

Massachusetts

21.1

Massachusetts win probability: 30%

Margin (Massachusetts − Western Michigan): -8.3 (80% range -28 to 11)

Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: Western Michigan 21 – Massachusetts 3 (margin error 9.7, total error 26.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.