Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
33.3
Purdue
24.4
Purdue win probability: 29%
Margin (Purdue − Illinois): -8.9 (80% range -30 to 11)
Total: 57.8 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Illinois 43 – Purdue 27 (margin error 7.1, total error 12.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 38 | 21 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.