2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM · McLane Stadium
Kansas State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
27.3
Baylor
27.8
Baylor win probability: 51%
Margin (Baylor − Kansas State): 0.6 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Kansas State 34 – Baylor 35 (margin error 0.4, total error 13.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.