2025 Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025, 11:00 PM · Raymond James Stadium

Charlotte @ South Florida

Predicted scoreConfident

Charlotte

16.5

South Florida

35.4

South Florida win probability: 88%

Margin (South Florida − Charlotte): 18.8 (80% range -1 to 39)

Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Charlotte 26 – South Florida 54 (margin error 9.2, total error 28.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.