2025 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2025, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana Tech
23.4
UTEP
19.8
UTEP win probability: 41%
Margin (UTEP − Louisiana Tech): -3.6 (80% range -23 to 15)
Total: 43.2 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Louisiana Tech 30 – UTEP 11 (margin error 15.4, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.