2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 10:00 PM · Fifth Third Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Middle Tennessee

25.8

Kennesaw State

28.0

Kennesaw State win probability: 55%

Margin (Kennesaw State − Middle Tennessee): 2.2 (80% range -18 to 23)

Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 16 – Kennesaw State 24 (margin error 5.8, total error 13.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.