Predicted scoreLean
UConn
29.7
Buffalo
23.9
Buffalo win probability: 35%
Margin (Buffalo − UConn): -5.8 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UConn 20 – Buffalo 17 (margin error 2.8, total error 16.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.