2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM · Boone Pickens Stadium

Baylor @ Oklahoma State

Predicted scoreLikely

Baylor

36.6

Oklahoma State

24.2

Oklahoma State win probability: 23%

Margin (Oklahoma State − Baylor): -12.4 (80% range -35 to 10)

Total: 60.8 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Baylor 45 – Oklahoma State 27 (margin error 5.6, total error 11.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.