2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

California @ Boston College

Predicted scoreLikely

California

21.3

Boston College

30.8

Boston College win probability: 73%

Margin (Boston College − California): 9.5 (80% range -11 to 29)

Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: California 28 – Boston College 24 (margin error 13.5, total error 0.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.