2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Rice @ Navy

Predicted scoreConfident

Rice

14.7

Navy

31.4

Navy win probability: 87%

Margin (Navy − Rice): 16.7 (80% range -3 to 36)

Total: 46.1 (80% range 24 to 69)

Actual: Rice 13 – Navy 21 (margin error 8.7, total error 12.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.