2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM · Malone Stadium
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
29.2
UL Monroe
31.0
UL Monroe win probability: 54%
Margin (UL Monroe − Arkansas State): 1.7 (80% range -20 to 23)
Total: 60.2 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Arkansas State 16 – UL Monroe 28 (margin error 10.3, total error 16.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.