2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:45 PM · FirstBank Stadium
Utah State @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
Utah State
23.4
Vanderbilt
39.1
Vanderbilt win probability: 83%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Utah State): 15.7 (80% range -6 to 38)
Total: 62.5 (80% range 38 to 89)
Actual: Utah State 35 – Vanderbilt 55 (margin error 4.3, total error 27.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.