2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium
Cincinnati @ Kansas
Predicted scoreLikely
Cincinnati
22.2
Kansas
34.4
Kansas win probability: 77%
Margin (Kansas − Cincinnati): 12.2 (80% range -8 to 33)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Cincinnati 37 – Kansas 34 (margin error 15.2, total error 14.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.