2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · DATCU Stadium
South Alabama @ North Texas
Predicted scoreLikely
South Alabama
24.9
North Texas
36.6
North Texas win probability: 76%
Margin (North Texas − South Alabama): 11.7 (80% range -10 to 34)
Total: 61.5 (80% range 37 to 88)
Actual: South Alabama 22 – North Texas 36 (margin error 2.3, total error 3.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.