Sam's Scores

2025 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl

UL Monroe @ UTEP

Predicted scoreLean
UL Monroe
20.2
UTEP
27.5
UTEP win probability: 68%
Margin (UTEPUL Monroe): 7.3 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 47.7 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: UL Monroe 31UTEP 25 (margin error 13.3, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
AwayHomeProbability
14240.89%
17240.84%
14210.84%
17170.74%
24240.73%
Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.

Home score →Away score →