2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:30 PM · McLane Stadium
Arizona State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arizona State
29.2
Baylor
30.3
Baylor win probability: 53%
Margin (Baylor − Arizona State): 1.2 (80% range -20 to 22)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 34 to 86)
Actual: Arizona State 27 – Baylor 24 (margin error 4.2, total error 8.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.