2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Illinois @ Indiana

Predicted scoreLikely

Illinois

23.2

Indiana

33.8

Indiana win probability: 74%

Margin (Indiana − Illinois): 10.6 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Illinois 10 – Indiana 63 (margin error 42.4, total error 16.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.